Coronavirus epidemics are expected to continue for the next 18 to 24 months, according to a new study by American researchers. He has warned governments around the world that the epidemic will re-emerge from time to time over the next two years. The study, called "Covid-19 Viewpoint" by the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota in the United States, is based on an earlier pattern of influenza epidemics. Four researchers have prepared this study. The researchers claim in the study that there are many similarities between the influenza virus and the Covid-19 virus.
Some assumptions about the Covid-19 epidemic
Both influenza and coronavirus are mainly transmitted to the body through the trachea. Both viruses live in the human body without showing any signs. Both viruses are capable of infecting millions of people and spreading rapidly worldwide. Not only that, both are novel viral pathogens. The researchers said in the study that some assumptions about the Covid-19 epidemic can be made by identifying important similarities and differences between Covid-19 and influenza in epidemiology. Based on previous epidemics, researchers have proposed three hypotheses for the novel coronavirus. However, they consider the Covid-19 to be more dangerous.
The disease will re-emerge in winter
The incubation period of the novel coronavirus is longer than that of influenza. The basic reproduction rate of coronavirus is also higher than that of influenza pandemics. In addition, previous epidemics did not have much impact on seasons such as winter or summer. According to the first assumption, the small phase will come in the summer after the big phase of the current Kovid-19. This sequence will last for 1 to 2 years. The basis of this phase will be based on some local factors, geography and measures taken for prevention.
Will be completely shut down
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According to another assumption, winter will come again in a big phase. Then next year one or more small phases are expected to come. According to the third assumption, the number of transitions and cases will gradually decrease after the completion of the first phase and then close completely. Researchers have warned governments around the world that the disease could worsen in the second phase, in winter.
